Tuesday, November 18, 2008

New tomorrow.... Anyone looking forward to it?

Okay the fight has reached the following stage now in US - US auto makers are finding it hard to keep afloat. Why did they ever reach this stage - well recession is one of the reasons - the other is the head strong ability of the Americans to bang their heads against walls - no matter how strong the walls are. Over a period of time - there were studies done over and over again that the US auto makers were losing out to the world - Why? they did not budge their stance from producing gas guzzlers which were good on the "show off" scale but did poorly when it came to economy. The gas rates meanwhile steadily increased and the rest of the world - Europe and Japan in particular were fast to see and perceive the future. They moved on to economic vehicles with comfort level in the ever crowding roads. Okay - I just veered off the road of what I wanted to convey. Now some in the US administration feel that out of the 700 Billion pledged for relief of Ailing financial institutions - some should be set aside for the Auto makers. Ben Replied to this that it would not be a good strategy as the aim of the bail out was to stablise the financial institutions to the level that the lending and borrowing start again and the economy gets a stimulus. Well I too feel that the demand and supply should be stablised. The govt cannot keep paying for the follies or otherwise of all. Today it is auto makers, then will be toothpaste makers and the list will keep on going endless. So maybe they have to put a stop to this begging bowl - after all they are still engaged in Iraq, Afghanistan overtly and a dozen of countries covertly with now even Russia breathing down their neck. Any way it is their headache at the moment and they have to find a solution themselves only. Infact as of now the US has realised that the first installment of the bailout package - that is 350 billion is just not firepower enough to make a dent on the ongoing recession. But rightly so the balance 350 billion injection is being kept aside for the new administration to take action as deemed appropriate. OOOf! big money and bigger problems.

The markets were as bad as they could possibly be. In Asia the news of Japan being in recession seemed to have sunk in finally and after a day in green the Nikkei opened red and kept there only in a narrow band closing 2.28% in red. Hang Seng was down 4.54% and Strait Times was down 3.26%. Europe seemed to have had enough in the past few days and it started flat went down red and then recovered to close green - the best scenario in the present circumstances. FTSE was up 1.25%, Dax up 0.10% and CAC up 1.11%. Ofcourse the Europe closing takes input from the US and US too opened flat and has now climbed comfortably in green - it has shown a lot of volatility in the period till now. So inspite of being in green there is just no grantee as to what closing will be seen by the US markets. Dow as present is 1.83% up, Nasdaq up 0.51% and S&P up 1.53%. The data from US continues to be weak.

The charts - that were showing hope till yesterday have just gone bonkers and down in a pit. The candle today was big black one. It increased the size of the otherwise narrowing Bollinger bands showing that once again the down trend is ready to play out perhaps. Volumes mind you were still not too muck. The 5EMA red line is still below the 20 EMA line and looks down. MACD red line is still above the blue line and the divergence is reducing - bad bad. TRIX is still looking up -- looking up as in hope? RSI is falling back to the 30 marker (will enter oversold zone if the fall continues at this rate. Slow Stochastic red line is trying to cross over the blue line and both red and blue line are in oversold territory.

So now all is infront of you what I could keep there - take your pick - go long or go short tomorrow. I will still be with what I said yesterday - The market should go up some before testing our previous lows but they (markets) have been behaving extremely weak.

The nifty pivots are...

R3 2940 against 2932 yesterday
R2 2854
R1 2768
Pivot 2716 against 2768 yesterday
S1 2630
S2 2578
S3 2492 against 2605 yesterday

Projected High Range 2742 to 2811
Projected Low Range 2792 to 2723
Fib Projected High 2839
Fib Projected Low 2626

Ofcourse the best of luck to all remains ...