Thursday, November 13, 2008

While we were sleeping............

I was busy catching up with my sleep after a late night movie "Quantum of Solace". The world was busy churning out villains eating the unsuspecting investors in the world stock markets. We fell like a hot brick after we had better than expected IIP Numbers - Wait better than expected IIP numbers? then what in the hell is the reason for our markets falling? GOD only knows - but what is doing rounds is that we are in middle of slowdown in industrial production - a stage that is the second step in a recession - this follows what was seen recently - the financial/credit slow down. Theories, theories and theories doing nothing better than justifying the present state of affairs of the markets and not giving us a damn thing new. Well cannot blame anyone - the markets have a mind of their own and you can do only introspection and not peep into the future - that's the way. There would be a small group of people who would be actually enjoying this phase - so much volatility. But for others - these are bad times. Yesterday the markets were up then down and then up and then.... Do not get carried away by this rhythm - this will die down suddenly keeping people stranded in middle of nowhere.

Okay let us start with what we have missed last few days ... Asia was down 5-6% on an average, Europe opened and they opened flat with a positive bias - by mid session the markets could not hold out and FTSE lost 1.52%, Dax down 2.96% and CAC down 3.07%. US opened down and then did not look up - it closed down - Dow down 4.73%, Nasdaq down 5.17% and S& P 500 5.19% -- then comes the second day of trade... that is 13th Nov .. Nikkei opened in red and slipped down greater to close at 5.25%, Hang Seng at -5.15% and Strait times down 1.6%. The first day was when Intel has slashed the 4Q outlook on the dimming PC demand. The second bad news to hit the second day was the Jobless claims that jumped to the 7 Year high. Europe opened negative and then yo-yo'ed between positive and negative around the neutral line. FTSE as of now is 0.59% in red, Dax up 0.61% and CAC plus 1.25%. Guess what - US has just opened and is all in green - all we have to see now is that it remains in green and closes so. All the same Dow is 1.06% green, Nasdaq up 0.53% and S&P 500 up 1.24%. Now there are two things to it - firstly it is just the begining of the session and the markets can swing anywhere, secondly IF they do go red and the chances are bright - then we have two days of fall to cover up for.

The markets when they closed - last they had fallen on volumes - there is a feeling that these volumes should have made us see lower levels than where we were... now now - I do not deal with volumes very well and if what people are saying is true then bulls did a fairly good job. All the same - I had written day before when we were in the middle of the Bollinger bands that if we had to fall then that was the time. It turned out to be true - a fluke maybe but neverthless. Now today we have had a second black candlestick. MACD divergence is slightly less but still positive - in the sense that the red line continues to be above the blue line. Mass index is below the 26 marker. RSI is positive but --- Uhhhh looking down maybe. TRIX is still looking up. If I were you - I would not trust the technicals too much - they are giving the direction but then that is about it. The volatility is just too much. The directions are dictated by GOD knows what. Also the volatility is around its peak so do not bet too much on the intraday swings. I will try to update once again tomorrow morning.

The nifty pivots are...

The Pivot data -
R3 3156
R2 3053
R1 2950
Pivot 2872
S1 2769
S2 22691
S3 2588

Projected High Range 2911 to 3002
Projected Low Range 2948 to 2857
Fib Projected High 3024
Fib Projected Low 2744

Hey while I was updating - US has dropped down in red.



Uma said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.