Wednesday, November 19, 2008

I was wrong.... and right at the same time.....

0730hrs 20 Nov 08: Sorry I could not post the blog yesterday night as the internet was just not playing up. The US has touched new lows as expected and the Asia opening is as bad - only relief is that Nikkei is not trading at the levels it opened at - almost 5% down and is now around 3% down. Hell - what is 2% for bears - it may be at the lower levels by the time we open for all we know. Guys - look at crude - 53$ and our govt is waiting for what to give us price cut - US becoming a Third world country?

19 Nov 08: The expectations of the recovery were not wrong, it is just that there is no impetus from the govt or any other quarters to make it work. They are waiting -- waiting for the right time to strike - when? their calculations take it closer to elections so there is time to go before so called measures are enforced with vigor to show some positive results. In any case that case scenario too is not very far away - just a few more weeks down the line. But if this remains the scene in the international scenario and there remains supported conditions in India (or unsupported - as the case may be) - this conditions will continue. The levels that are likely to be tested may not prove to be as strong supports as being made out by many quarters and the stocks may sink even below those levels. The international markets too are searching for the bottom and the bottom seems to be eluding everyone. No strategies seems to be wroking and lower bottoms seems to be the order of the day.

Asia closed mildly red as if searching for some news/event to grope on to. Nothing was forthcoming though and after a flat opening by Nikkei it slipped down, down and down. It was only near the closing that some semblence of sanity returned and the closing was above the days lows - but still at 0.66% red. Hang Seng closed 0.77% down and Strait Times was 1.59% down. Like in those days when we could see nothing but green - now a days we see nothing but shades of red. Europe was no better - it again opened flat in red and the and for the rest of the day did nothing but slipped down down and down. FTSE finished the day with 4.82% red, Dax 4.92% down and Cac down 4.0%. US too opened red but flat - made two attempts to break into the green but by mid session now is deep red. Dow down 2.01%, Nasdaq down 3.36% and S&P down 3%. I expect a bad bad closing for US today.

The Candle formed today was inverted hammer - a reversal signal - frankly I too am sick of giving out reversal signals as nothing is working out but all the same that is what is there on the candles. the candles have crept closer to the lower bottom. 5EMA line is lower than the 20 EMA line and is slipping down further. the volumes were a shade higher than last two days. Are the bears finding it difficult to touch lower levels - a lot do not think so as the feeling is that there is no buying in the markets at all. MACD red line has kissed the blue line and the divergence is very close to zero. TRIX has almost given up looking towards the sky and is turning flat. Mass Index shows the continuation of the present trend. RSI is still positive but to what effect? - cannot say. Okay now - the Slow Stochastics are oversold like in highly oversold. Seeing them like this I promptly pulled up one year charts and each time we had it at these levels - there were a few white candles. But all the same take all this with a bucket of salt - I really expect US to touch new lows either today or in a day or so. We might follow suite after all we have to test the Oct 27 lows and then only we can expect something.

All in all we may may drop lower and that is it. But in the first case where we are not able to breach OC 27th low on closing may be relief and if we do breach it then markets we will have an entirely new range to settle down at... a lower trading range for a long time to come.

The nifty pivots are...

R3 2927 against 2940 yesterday
R2 2829
R1 2732
Pivot 2674 against 2716 yesterday
S1 2577
S2 2519
S3 2422 against 2492 yesterday

Projected High Range 2703 to 2781
Projected Low Range 2763 to 2685
Fib Projected High 2814
Fib Projected Low 2574

To all the Jedi masters - may the markets be with you ...