Thursday, January 22, 2009

Confusion galore… Update for 23rd Jan 09

At this rate the month is going to go by with only confusion and confusing thoughts. Let us first see what we have in hand then we will try and find some solution to our problems around. Firstly, our reliance results are out. What played in my mind was that the results will be declared during the off trading hours and will never know what side the markets will swing. The results are not good but all the same they have beaten the market expectations. Couple this with Bharti that has managed to beat the expectations we have some hope for the coming days. So far so good… but in US the results declared by Microsoft has put everyone in renewed worry of recession. They now announce that 5000 jobs will be cut and the US markets are fast sinking to these results. Which lower low will they finally settle to – GOD only knows.22 Jan 09 3 months

The Asia today traded in a fairly narrow zone around the flat line – but just before the ending there was some buying support and ended with some gains. Nikkei was up 1.9%, Hang Seng up just 0.59% and Strait Times up 0.25%. Europe traded most of the day in green but before closing could not hold on to the gains and slipped red. FTSE down 0.19%, Dax down 0.98% and CAC down 1.24%. Less we talk about US the better – Obama effect is nowhere to be seen. Nasdaq has slipped down 4.09%, S&P down 3.28% and DOW down 3.14%. I only hope that they do not close at these levels. GOD bless America. Yahoo is saying that some John Thain has left Bank of America – I really do not know him but all the same yahoo is splashing this as their headlines so I thought would be important enough.

On the charts it is a copy book – perfect Doji. Had it been there after a trend – whether up or down it would have been a strong signal of a reversal – but in these times of confusion I think it too signifies just that – CONFUSION. No one really knows which side the markets will finally go. The markets are going near the bottom of the Bollinger bands and the bands too are expanding with the narrowest being on 7th Jan. 5 EMA is below the 20 EMA and 20 EMA is below 50 EMA. There is no future in seeing these lines. The volumes were a tad higher – but that is it. ADX is bearish, MACD divergence has increased a bit – Bad. RSI still bad and TRIX is looking down and Slow Stochastic is nowhere – still to go oversold. So the path is clear for a drop – by another 200 odd points? but then in this business – there is no clear cut directions.

Let us see how today panned out to be! 



The Pivot for the day was at 2727 and that was voilated on the downside early in the trade and thereafter the markets took this as the resistance and these levels were never crossed really. On the lower side the Support 1 was at 2668 and the markets never went down enough to see those levels.

For tomorrow let us see the Pivot levels…

R3 2807 against 2884 yesterday
R2 2775
R1 2744
Pivot 2712 against 2727 yesterday
S1 2681
S2 2649
S3 2618 against 2571 yesterday
Projected High Range 2728 to 2760
Projected Low Range 2728 to 2696
Fib Projected High 2761
Fib Projected Low 2663

Best of luck for tomorrow – last day of the week.