Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Hey Don’t get too excited by the run up today….

It was all good – but now past us. Technically it is difficult to support this run up today. The Nifty and Reliance had run up today on news partially and on lower than 50 day average volumes. Little less – but less nevertheless. Reliance advanced 9.48% on 89% of 50 Average volumes, Nifty advanced 3.29% on 85% volumes, L&T 1.34% on 59% volumes, Tata Steel 5.23% on 58% volumes… the list goes on. Now go on to the other side – Gail lost 0.92% on 103% volumes, HDFC bank down 1.14% on 143%. The list is fairly long and the run up is not really full-fledged. Time will tell the rest.

Asia was good – Nikkei ended 0.29% in green, Hang Seng 0.27% in green and Strait Times 0.16% in green. Mind you they had dived nearer or lower than their opening levels. Europe opened at levels that remained the best for the day. The closing was – Red – FTSE down 4.97%, Dax down 4.63% and CAC down 4.56%. US just has carried the red rally further with the markets in mid session down – Dow down 3.05%, Nasdaq down 3.17% and S&P down 3.42% – there is a long way to go. They might come off these lows but the possibility remains bleak. Our ADRs except for one odd are hammered down like hell.daily 14 Jan 09

Tomorrow also we have a lot of news coming in including the inflation data that has now-a-days lost much of its shine as markets do not look forward to it. As far as the candles are concerned the candle today was a large and white one. It came off the lower end of the Bollinger band and 5 EMA does not still look like crossing the 20 EMA (the chart does not show the 5 EMA). The ADX does not give any credence to this up move – but it does also say that perhaps the down trend is loosing steam – negative nonetheless. MACD negative divergence remains/ RSI looks up – hopefully we can call it positive, but one of my favourites – the TRIX is looking down with vengeance. Slow Stochastics oversold and that is the second indicator that holds out hope for us.


Seen the markets playing out – opened at R1 levels and then kept going up almost to the R2 levels – then testing the bottom at the R1 Levels finally breaching the R2 – unable to sustain and coming back to the R2 levels. Basically the game was about the two resistance levels. The red line is the 14 minutes EMA and leave aside few whip lashes – you could have 30 – 40 run each sides.

The pivot data for tomorrow…

R3 2958 against 2884 yesterday
R2 2917
R1 2876
Pivot 2812 against 2755 yesterday
S1 2771
S2 2707
S3 2666 against 2626 yesterday
Projected High Range 2844 to 2896
Projected Low Range 2809 to 2757
Fib Projected High 2881
Fib Projected Low 2719.

Hey best of luck to tomorrow. I really I am just a pessimist around the corner and am proved wrong by the markets.


14 Jan 09 day

Technorati Tags: ,



Uma said...

there! market at your fibo low!
Reliance holding out thankfully

Uma said...

and congrats on the bang-on analysis.

S S Cheema said...

Thanks Uma!