Wednesday, January 7, 2009

The day gone by….

So the markets are behaving like our neighbour – they are in the denial mode. no amount of bad news now is a problem for them. like some time ago when no amount of good news was good. Nothing has changed – except the market behaviour. It is very difficult to say whether we have bottomed out. I am sure that we will point our nose down only when you me and everyone else will be convinced that the markets are on their way upwards for good. At the moment I am happy and will remain so. I would however be a bit cautious as this is the second day that a doji has formed and it is not easy for the markets to ignore such and indication one after another. Like everyone says – better take precautions than to undergo the cure. And I am sure inspite of my cautious approach – the markets will decide and do whatever they feel right.

If the global indications are anything to go by – then we underperformed Europe and US yesterday. In asia Hang Seng and Strait Times has opened flat and went on to close red – Hang Seng down 0.35% and Strait Times down 0.58%. Nikkei on the other hand had opened green and managed to end green – up 0.42%. Europe had opened flat and then went on to close green – off the highest levels but green nonetheless. FTSE was up 1.29%, DAX up 0.85% and CAC up 1.08%. The news of job cut and recession continues to pour in from everywhere but US – after a lot of ups and downs decided to close green – DOW up 0.69%, Nasdaq up 1.5% and S&P up 0.78%. Taking these positive cues Asia has opened green across the board – Nikkei presently up 2.42%, Hang Seng up 1.61% and Strait Times up 2.18%. Talking purely from the global cues – a positive opening is on the cards – but I really have my doubts whether we will sustain it towards the end.getImageFromSession.php

I have already mentioned that the candles show a Doji and that is a strong reason for expecting some sort of sell off today.The bollinger bands have narrowed further and the candles so far are trailing the upper edge of the bands only. Volumes have increased and MACD divergence trails in positive. RSI is good and bullish and for a change the TRIX again looks up. The ADX is showing gathering strength in the uptrend but the +DI itself is looking down. On the Slow Stochastic the red line has crossed below the black line and both are in overbought zone – another tinkling of advice that the markets are over bought.

Pivot data… The pivot is at the same place and the R3 and S3 have expanded by a bare 10 odd points range.

R3 3226 against 3207 yesterday
R2 3188
R1 3150
Pivot 3103 against 3103 yesterday
S1 3065
S2 3018
S3 2980 against 2999 yesterday
Projected High Range 3126 to 3169
Projected Low Range 3113 to 3070
Fib Projected High 3164
Fib Projected Low 3032


The markets have traded in a narrow band yesterday as shown below.


Please do expect some sell off today. Best of Luck to everyone.




Uma said...

technicals bang on, congrats!
Today I shorted Unitech when it went below 40.4 but it didn't make up for my losses on calls.

mash said...

hi sir,
what do u the satyam bang an isolated case of tyre burst or whole highway is caving in temporarily?

Uma said...

I have to say...Nifty's cracks are worse than the isolated impact of Satyam! But the good news is that Reliance Capital replaces Satyam on Nifty from 12 Jan...More power to the Anil of Ambani fame!

S S Cheema said...

Thanks Uma. I would call it more of a chance than anything else - bloody operators. In any case I am not complaining - My reliance puts did a wonder. Now I am long one reliance CA.
Mash (Shukla): I bought 50 Satyam at 42 - I am sure that this is a case of exaggerated reaction and it should stablise at about 60-80 levels minimum. Now as far as the technicals and also fundamentals are concerned - give me a day - I will surely like to look into it.

Uma said...

cheema, some things are not cheap at ANY price. satyam is a piece of garbage...nobody knows if they have lied about debt...they might not be anything more than a liability (-ve number on balance sheet)

Uma said...

I agree with the bloody operators part. The volumes are suddenly jacked up in Reliance (4x the normal) and the stock cracks much much worse than Nifty...Anyways, all is fair in stock markets ;D

S S Cheema said...

I too agree Uma - some things are scrap at whatever price. It is just for sake of trading that I bought 50 satyam - but am ready to admit to my mistake - I am off with them the first moment I get.

Shukla: I am off with satyam - it may go to any levels - but after what I have read and learnt - it is not worth touching this stock at all even in your dreams. It will be propelled by too much speculation and that is not good - it may work in your favour or against you - one can never guess.

Uma said...

yea just get rid of it...once its out of nifty even operators won't touch it.