Friday, May 30, 2008

Kisme kitna hai dum......

GOD save small investors in this tussle that is happening between bulls and bears. Though everyone would say the round has gone in bears favour -- and it may be true too -- but do I sense a bull waiting to strike? Let's see.........

How the operators make a fool of everyone. All this while when I, alongwith thousands of small investors were waiting for the shorts to be covered -- and a bounce back to happen -- a different ballgame was being played. Operators were building longs -- and selling in cash for delivery (probably) -- when while we waited patiently for shorts to unwind and thinking that operators are keeping markets depressed to help with shorts -- it was longs that they were unwinding and then the results are in front of us -- heavens fell -- and so did my BHEL. Only saviour in this story was that when I turned on the TV - heard 'L & T results due today' and bought one lot -- fortunately results are now history and stock went through the roof and I got 150 points before I squared up and sat on sidelines (waiting for bounce back to happen for BHEL)

How do we see it today? -- not good -- not not good at all. The problem is that now there is nothing but to shout bear.

5 EMA below 20 EMA and divergence increasing.
RSI below 50 and facing down.
MACD bearish.
TRIX below 1
We are not showing any signs of moving away from the bottom line of bollinger band.

But then there are some good indications also. The force with which the bears tried to hammer bulls I thought that they will breach 61.8% Fibonacci's retracement -- that they could not do. Infact they could not even touch it in the best of bear times yesterday. They may attempt breaching it today but I am sceptical. If they cannot then I expect a bounce smarter than what I was expecting it to be yesterday. Second -- StochRSI is now generating buy signals. The second signal that is turned buyer favourable is that in slow Stochastic the fast line has crossed over above the slow line and will shortly join StochRSI as a buy signal (please do not mistake this with bullish signal -- they are just giving buy signals). Next support we have at this or these levels is the bollinger band that generally is not breached as an everyday affair. The band however is widening and that is showing greater volatility (as if we did not know already).

So I hold on to the sidelines (sic!) with my BHEL and wait for miracle to happen. If the stock does touch and not breach 1568 (cash) then it makes a double bottom and should (repeat should) show a smart recovery.

Global cues good -- but watch out for our inflation data. Upto 8% -- no shock -- above it hold on to your shorts and have a ball.



Rajandran said...

Cheema now turned to be bullish after good GDP Nos.
At present whos growth rate is at 8.8% of GDP could you tell me. And india is one among the odd finger.

S S Cheema said...

Rajandran: I am not bullish. I just expected a bounce and that is all. Nothing more nothing less.