Friday, May 23, 2008

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

I am sure that everyone wants to know -- but who the hell knows?
Well I will disregard the fact that the inflation nos are due in my analysis but just an inkling - PM said that inflation continues to be a worry -- does he signal an increase in inflation before it is declared? maybe -- maybe not. Inflation will ultimately be controlled and in any case -- we have been shouting 8% and now 8% may have already been discounted in our stocks -- may not surprise us to break downwards.

A timely monsoon on its way may be a good thing to water down the hoarders. And like in stocks it is the hoarders and speculators that do the most of the damage either way driving the commodities sky high.

Rising Oil -- read my last blog -- the oil will go up and in a way it is good. This is the only way that the alternatives will be looked for and the appropriate technology will develop. I do not know the top of this graph -- but some say 150 $ others upto 200$ either way it will act on demand and supply. OPEC knows that after this commodity finishes -- there is nothing much there they can rely on to give them the kind of income they are used too.

The nifty made a long black candle yesterday. but inspite of all this I am still not a bear. the reasons are :

Firstly, Stochastic RSI on nifty is giving a pure buy signal. It just cannot be more louder than this. And mind you it is a fairly powerful signal.

Secondly, we are not breaking support lines with too much of conviction. the Fabonacci retracement line is around 4980 and that should not be easily broken this time around. Seen Da-Vinci-Code? heard of fabonacci numbers? may be an intersesting reading if you have time.

Thirdly, TRIX is not negative so far -- it was dipping -- but it hs not crossed the zero line so far -- it is one of the so called a leading indicators and Slow EMA line is still above the fast line -- struggling to be above -- but it remains above the slow line.

Finally, I do not know what to make out of candles purely but for sure they are not bearish.

The bad part of the story -- MACD fast line has crossed down the slow line and remains below. Pure RSI below 50% mark though just. as jaggu says on his site. TRIN is bearish. I am a fan of TRIN though i do not have the paitence to sit tight every night and to work it out -- but it says beraish -- you better have TRIN on your side. I was introduced to TRIN by radhika_nandlal on moneycontrol and have been a fan for a long time now.

Tell me -- why don't you selectively enter IFCI and Relpetro? may be worth a while. The rumours of another stake sale round have surfaced in IFCI and above 188 rpl may suddenly breakout and cross 200.


allvoices

6 comments:

geniusjaggu said...

arre mian,
kuch to sharm karo...iss mushkil ki ghadi main aap chillar ikhatta karr rahe ho!!!..LOL....

S S Cheema said...

Nahi Jaggu chillar ikhatta nahi kar rahe -- chillar bant rahe hain.
I am only giving money -- not earning -- but all the same trying to limit losses.
;-)
LOL (louder)
cheema

Rajandran said...

One kind request could you please maintain your conversation in english. Muje tho hindi achi tharah nahi atha.

geniusjaggu said...

dear rajendran,
dont worry,this is a friendly banter,not a mkt conversation :)
u can also join with ur "thodi acchi hindi" for banter only...LOL...

if u r good shayar...i cud u join also...shero shayari bantne ke liye hum hai na..

@cheemaji,
am i right?saddi punjabi bhi utni buri nahi hai...Rollin On Floor Laugh...

S S Cheema said...

Mr rajandran: point taken -- wilco
jaggu: had a bad bad day- alls shorts and puts were disposed off when the inflation nos did not turn out to be very bad -- and then i did something even better -- took longs.
I want a lot of whiskey to swallow down the losses.
sob sob.
but did you notice -- the market did not react to the inflation nos?
Cheema

geniusjaggu said...

arre mian,
dont worry,i m always with u,sukh dukh ka saathi,main hoon haathi..LOL..

even i was stopped out many times month :( ...nothing to complain abt :)

yes,i did notice rally after inflation figures...but had confidence in my analysis tat it is bull trap..and bingo my past experience :( came in handy ..LOL