Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Bear with me.......... for just one more time

Believe me - I have nothing against the bulls - it is just that it was so unrealistic. It has been a nearly 700+ points rally on the nifty and that is the time frame it took me to get convinced that it is what we see - a recovery and not a dead cat bounce or whatever. we are now at the approximate 61.8 per cent retracement level. This was the same level that was tested on 24th of July and we could not sustain it. It is the second time we're trying to test this level and circumstantially we are much more poised to break it and go up. But bear me for another one-day as I wait for this level to be broken convincingly. After this the level to watch out for is 4653 on nifty.And then we are likely to have a resistance free run by another four to five hundred points.

On the international front what a run-up we had yesterday. Europe was up 2.5 per cent in green on an average. FTSE up 2.52%, the DAX up by 2.66% and CAC up by 2.47%. US not wanting to be left behind out did Europe. Dow was up 2.94%, NASDAQ up 2.81% and S&P 500 up 2.87%. taking these cues Asia has opened in green and likely to remain so. This is the reason I'm so positive that we are circumstantially much more poised to break this resistance level of 61.8% retracement. This rally is incidentally in US as Federal reserve left interest rates unchanged and assuaged some of the market's fears about the economy.

The day before's candle was inconclusive --it really did not give out the reversal signal as expected however yesterday's candle spells out bullishness. I do say again that I would wait for a reconfirmation of a clear breakout above 4525 levels. on the individual indicator levels MACD remains bullish and continuue looking up, RSI is bullish, TRIX looking up and is bullish, slow stochastic is bullish with the red line above the blue line. the ADX too is bullish. We are as of now trailing the upper edge of the Bollinger band and the bandwidth is not narrowing, so the rally as I see should now continue. A small word of caution however the red line of slow stochastic is in overbought territory and as of yesterday the blue line is too at 80 marker entering the overbought zone. StochRSI continues to be in this zone, overbought at hundred. Jaggu's TRIN says Bearish. So overall the bulls still overwiegh the bears. I personally feel that the bears are now not in a position to strike - they may do so with more indicators entering the overbought zone.

I can't tell you how much I love the bulls. I wish everyone luck and tons of money. I'm still waiting for my January losses to be recovered. sob sob sob!



Vikas Sharma said...

Oh, I love the bulls too. I think everybody does. I think that is because most of us want to buy first and then sell it. We, as honest people, are not in the habit of selling something which we don't own. Otherwise I would have sold the Taj Mahal by now.

You are right in saying that this rally has been too good to be true. The Nifty has now, though, confirmed a bullish head and shoulders pattern, the target for which is 5200.


Uma said...

I have a love-hate relationship with bulls. I love the bulls because I see so much persistence, so much optimism when all kinds of negative cues are coming in. But I hate the way they're obsessed with reliance pack. It's junk, that shows them in their true light - satta bazaris