Monday, August 4, 2008

Black candle............ but still indecisive....

with every passing day more and more confusing signals are building up. Should I call at consolidation? Or should I stick with my retracement theory? Let us see.

Yesterday there was a rumour that a tropical storm is likely to distrupt the supplies of the Gulf of Mexico oil rigs. suddenly then another theory cropped up that this tropical storm is less likely to hit Gulf of Mexico and the oil prices dropped. So this is how the stocks and commodities behave. so don't be surprised about two totally opposite theories cropping up at the same time and markets and commodities taking a course of their own. All in all the Europe closed red three quarters of a per cent, US closed red -- Dow down .37%, NASDAQ down 1.1% and S&P 500 down .9%. It's hard to see Green in Europe and US nowadays Uh! In Asia Nikkei opened green, went red by a few points, climbed hundred plus points in green and now diving back towards red at the same pace. Straits Times opened flat and dived down red. With this kind of volatility in those markets it is hard to guess where they will be short of our opening. There is a chance however that the Nikkei is red, Strait TImes remains red and Hang Seng Opens deep red.

Three ADRs that have been flashing since morning on the idiot box and trailing in red the banking sector, the IT sector and the auto we cannot expect these sectors to be under pressure as we open. the candlestick pattern yesterday was inconclusive. It does not in real terms signal the death of the uptrend we had for last few days but not as it signal a continuation of the same. I had frankly expected a doji -- that would have given a clear downturn signal. with the yesterday's candle the MACD remains bullish but showing signs of wobbling, RSI remains bullish, TRIX still looks up, ADX is bullish and slow stochastic is bullish. On the other hand jaggu's TRIN says bearish and the StochRSI is in over bought condition -- this may put the RSI to hold. as far as I'm concerned 4525 remains to be the level I would wish the market to cross with force to be bullish. That also is incidentally the 61.8% retracement level.

With so many bullish indications we may open green or flat and remain volatile ending in red. How much in red will depend on the news flow during the trading hours. Our closing in green -- I'm a little circumspect. Best of luck to all.



S S Cheema said...

Friends and Enemies - Please do leave a rating so that I know where I stand.

geniusjaggu said...

pssh....Trin updated....kal main long positions sell kar ke soya tha...isi liye acchi neend aayi ;)