Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Do I see bears giving up?.......... Where are you?

The bears are not trying hard enough to crack the markets. If this is the way they behave then it is just a matter of time before the Bulls wake up to this fact and strike back. So much so that inspite of such (good bearish) indications from the global markets - the bears cracked Nifty by what? a mere 25 points down. Shame on you. The pattern is a hammer and could spell trouble for the bears if they do not get their act together fast. And more so the bears have to keep the markets in depressed state till I get my Sixth pay commission arrears and I can buy some good stocks. Ha - so you see why I am a bear now a days?

Europe had an extremely bad day yesterday - FTSE closing more than 2.38% down, and Dax down by 2.34% and CAC down by 2.61%. US by that means was a shade better with the DOW 1.14% down, NASDAQ down 1.35 per cent and S&P 500 pound .93%. All this was blamed on to inflation data and financial worries. there has been a hefty jump in the wholesale inflation in US along with a fall in new home constructions. back here in Asia taking these global cues Nikkei opened more than a hundred points down and almost immediately started climbing towards a recovery. Just a few points below the flat line it decided to reverse and went down again. The recovery was sharp and we may see it turning green during the course of the day. Strait Times opened red and turned green almost immediately and as I write it oscillates between red and green.

As far as the candles are concerned yesterday's candle gives i.e. the reversal of the downtrend. So once again we stand at the crossroads with 4425 being that resistance on the topside. If we meaningfully crossed this level and stay above we can start a journey upwards once again. However like I said yesterday if we continue going down then the next support level is at 4190. the fall yesterday and the recovery for whatever it was worth was on even thinner volumes than day before. MACD is now definitely bearish with the red line below the blue. Mass index once again supporting the downtrend and not showing the doubts it had yesterday. RSI is turning bearish. And the StochRSI has moved away from the oversold indications. the TRIX is now definitely looking down -- bearish. Slow stochastic's both red and blue lines are below the 20 marker giving oversold indications -- and may help the market find it bottom. the Bollinger bands continue to narrow and the candles now are very near to trailing the bottom of the band. In other words you can call it the candles at changing sides from trailing the top of the Bollinger band to the bottom. if we do not have any triggers then today too we may see trading in a narrow band with probably a little positive bias.

As promised earlier today I pick up a stock for recommendation that is 'Bongaigaon refinery'. ideally I should have depended the stock or talked about it at least 14/- rupees back when it was at 54/- levels. The wonderful part of the stock is that it may prove itself to be as safe as a FD. It has been one of the highest dividend payment company of our country. coupled with that it has indications that look bullish. on the negative side the problems are that it is a public sector undertaking and any problem in the east of our country is celebrated by an odd blast in this refinery. so I would say that whatever you may decide to keep aside for the stock - invest atleast 50 per cent of that at these levels and thereafter wait. like I said a little before it may turn out to be a good FD. P.S. please see the stock from the medium to long term horizon only.

Now I have a request to all the bloggers who visit my page to contribute meaningfully to this suggestion of mine on Bongaigaon Refinery. I realise that there may be a few hundred scripts that deserve a better honour than this but once again I repeat that for making this suggestion meaningful please restrict your discussion to this script only. this suggestion of mine has been on part technicals and part instinct.



S S Cheema said...

at opening it could not cross 4425 - may remain range bound? not showing a break either up or down. downside to break is 4375. then bears can have a great time again.

50% dividend by Bongaigaon refinery

S S Cheema said...

Sorry Ex dividend today, book closing from 22 aug to 10 sep