Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Its a Grave Stone Doji........ Shall we run for cover?

Gravestone DOji is one of the gravest reversal signals on the Candlesticks. The Gravestone Doji is described as:
A "gravestone doji," as the name implies, is probably the most ominous candle of all. On that day, prices rallied, but could not stand the "altitude" they achieved. By the end of the day they came back and closed at the same level. The example is as shown in the jpg image.

I am sure that most of you visiting this site would have been already aware of this. The point is that does this spell the doom that we have been waiting for or the markets will have the momentum and the wherewithal to brush it aside and move ahead. Frankly the fall that we saw towards the end of the session was not really anticipated. It just goes to show that there can be no laid back attitude when dealing in stocks and that either you are awake during the trading session or trail stop losses. Now comes the hard part -- do we define the candle today as a doji? Let us see -- the open was 4506, low was 4504, high was 4616 and the close was 4518.
This breaks down into
upper wick -- 98 points
lower wick -- 2 points
body -- 12 points
the problem as I see lies with the body 12 points - had it been lower the better it would have been.
The related point that confuses me is -- are we really above the 61.8% retracement or are we below it? Actually I write what I see on the iCharts - and I realised that the charts may not be very accurate. In any case we can declare that the close was around the 61.8% retracement and this level remains as a resistance yet to be convincingly broken. So the vote on seeing the above evidence is definitely against the bulls. They could not save a 100 point rally from being taken by the bears! Give me a break.

The Europe closed in green but the journey through the day was painful hovering around the neutral line and recovering only around the closing. FTSE was up 0.58%, DAX up 0.65% and CAC up 1.41%. Infact it was only CAC that remained convincingly up in green through the session. The US opened flat to red and later recovered closing well in green with the better than expected results of Cisco and drop in crude prices. The asia has not taken the US cues and has opened red. Nikkei down 1.29% and strait times down .57% as of now.

Next I will list out the bullish indicators and the berarish indicators and leave the "what will the markets do tomorrow" to you. Of course the bullish ones come first.
Head and shoulder pattern being advocated strongly by Vikas Sharma
Trailing along upper edge of bollinger bands
Mass Index is not signalling a trend reversal so far.
Crude down by 87 cents.

The bearish indicators are next
SlowStochastic redline has crossed below the blue line and both lines individually are in over bought zone.
StochRSI in overbought zone.
Gravestone Doji.
Jaggu's TRIN

Now after this please do take your own pick. Overall bullishness remains but a breather may do good overall. Best of luck.



Vikas Sharma said...

Advocated strongly by me??? Well, I just saw the pattern on the charts and wrote about it. I do not have any special affection with the pattern. But things changed after yesterday's decline. We still do not have a confirmed pattern breakout.

S S Cheema said...

no offence Vikas. did you also notice that your name has a link to your blog?

Uma said...

vikas: I think reliance is going to crack

S S Cheema said...

Uma: many are about to crack - just a matter of timing.