Friday, August 8, 2008

Inching higher..... Still underconfident..

My wife is glued to the soap opera's -- and I am glued to the nifty dances. I always used to think what the soap opera's have -- cannot convince anyone in the world to sit down and watch more than two serials. And then I started seeing the nifty dance every day. One day my wife comes to me and asked me what you find seeing the same charts over and over again. I explained to her - its just like your soap's -- the nifty dance is the same, there are twists and turns on everyday basis and like Ekta Kapoor's soaps -- it never ends.

So let's get on with it. The Europe was flat -- as always confused. FTSE opened red spent most of the time in green and ended .16% in red. Dax ended .27% down and CAC .2 per cent in green. The US -- at least knows decisively where it has to start and where to end. It started in red and closed deeper in red. Dow down 1.93%, NASDAQ down .95% and S&P 500 down 1.79 per cent. The red in US has been attributed to a jump in oil prices on account of fire in Turkish pipeline and negative reports from the Wal Mart. Asia taking these cues started in red. Nikkei opened in red, dived down further and as of now is making a recovery (hope it lasts till we open). Strait Times opened marginally in red and dived down deeper with no recovery in sight. As of now Strait Times is threequarters of per cent down and Nikkei a quarter per cent down.

Yesterday on our candles we made a lower bottom and the lower top. The saving grace is that we are still above our support levels and we have inched up further - even if a mere nine points on nifty. The candle is doji and once again it gives us indication of reversal to come. When will it come? Is anybody's guess. The MACD remains bullish, and if anything else seems to have further improved since yesterday. RSI remains to be okay and is still not in over bought zone. TRIX is looking great. Mass index shows no signs of reversal. StochRSI has moved below the over bought zone. The slow stochastic is showing signs of trouble -- the red line having convincingly moved below the blue line and trying to break the 80 point line. Then TRIN is bearish (refer Jauggu's blog) The close yesterday was 4524 -- a mere one point below 4525. I hope like hell that it closes above this level today - but the troubled indicators remain and has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Additionally the markets it is expected at 12.5 per cent inflation. The inflation figure yesterday on the other hand has been 12.05 per cent. That is below the expectations and may figure positively today. Our neighbours on the Western front are preparing to impeach Musharraf - trouble there is too close physically to set aside.

So all in all - remain sensitive to the noises and trade with caution. I remain a bear. Best of luck to all.


allvoices

7 comments:

geniusjaggu said...

Q "there are twists and turns on everyday basis and like Ekta Kapoor's soaps" Uq

i like figures more...i meant numbers here u dirty mind...!!

preet said...

RFOL - I remember you doing that earlier

Uma said...

cheema, genius: I got to hand it to your wife. She's better off than us, atleast she's not betting money on the outcome of her soaps, and our Nifty is equally unpredictable but we've got real money on the line.

Uma said...

And I second your bearish view ;)

Uma said...

Cheema, why don't you get reliance puts? Reliance has fallen from 2300a couple times in last 2 months. I thought...One more time baby! And bought 3 lots PA 2300.

geniusjaggu said...

cheemaji,will buy reliance calls(pss..since he is philanthropic trader..who is more interested in donating money to operators like most of us)..hai na,am i right???mian..LOL

Uma said...

jaggu: I have donated so much to markets myself! Bada beraham hai ye market....