Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Round one to the Bears............ Ding

Infact - had it been any other way I would have been surprised. Three crow pattern on the candle sticks would have been a complete Hog Wash and that is not the respect that is given to Technicals. On the other hand that convincing bout was missing - the round went to the bears with the bulls putting up an half hearted fight. Where is your killer instinct - bears? Come on - let's give it one more try.

Not to worry bears - today the global cues point towards giving another chance to you. Europe as always oscillated between red and green -- FTSE opening red -- moving to green and ending red 0.08%, Dax starting red move into green during the mid session and then ending red 0.20%, the CAC too had a mixed session starting red -- going green and ending red 0.11%. the US was more decisive in what it had to do. Dow opened marginally green at the flat line and ended well into red at 1.55 per cent, NASDAQ down 1.45 per cent and S&P 500 down 1.51%. The reason for the showdown by US was renewed concerns regarding the financial health of the economy and the bailout fears. Asia -- as always taking these global indications seriously starts in red. Nikkei opened red and presently is treading 2.50 per cent red. Straits Times too has opened 1.6 per cent red.

On the candlesticks -- the yesterday's candle has broken the 4425 support level. This may spell a further downside anywhere up to 4191 level. This was the level at which it tweezers were formed an 29th and 30th of Jul. The Bollinger bands are narrowing and the candles are now definitely moving -- going towards the lower end of the band. Once again to all those who don't track Bollinger bands trading the lower edge means confirmation of the fall. The divergence of the red and blue line on MACD is near nil. If we have another red candle today too then definitely the red line moves below the blue line and gives us an even stronger bearish signal. The mass index is indecisive -- neither signalling the trend reversal nor the trend continuation. The RSI looks down. The TRIX too is looking down negatively. on the slow stochastic the red line trails well below the blue line and has gone into the oversold territory. It may remain in the oversold territory till the time blue line to joins it there. The StochRSI is already in the oversold territory. But unfortunately its capacity to stay oversold or overbought is phenomenal.

So all in all except that the fall yesterday happened even lower volumes than previous days there is nothing particularly sunny on the candles. At this rate we are likely to have another bear day. the crude cooling down further may be a saviour -- that is if it continues to cool down.

Good hunting to all those who believed in 'The Crows' and are short since 4600 levels.