Thursday, August 21, 2008

Do you have it in you?............ Bears -- no you don't

As had said yesterday -- in spite of bears and giving one bearish candle after another -- they just did not have the kind of momentum/willpower to crack the nifty any further. Day before the attempt by the bears are just about half-hearted and that had resulted in formation of a hammer candlestick. the hammer rightly signalled the end of the downtrend giving a fair chance to the bulls to get their act together and that is exactly what the bulls did. they promptly countered the bears with a white candle -- the body being 51 points.

Europe had started flat yesterday thereafter kept on oscillating between red and green and ended firmly in green. FTSE closed 0.97% in green, and Dax up 0.56% and CAC 0.76% in green. US also mirrored the Europe and ended the erratic day in green. The door was up 0.61%, NASDAQ up 0.20% and S&P 500 up 0.62%. The Asia seems to have disregarded Europe and US green ending and is trading with a negative bias. Nikkei starting green but presently more than 74 points down that is 0.58% in red. The Straits Times started down, meant further down and now shows signs of recovery but still 0.53% in red. Hang Seng too has started red down 168 points.

On Bollinger bands the candles and did not reach the lower end and have turned back. They have a full opportunity to once again start trailing the upper band. The volumes were a shade better for the white candle yesterday. MACD -- the red line still trails below the blueline and that continues to be bearish. RSI has started looking up. TRIX is showing a trend down. And mass index again has started showing continuation of the uptrend that had begin in the first week of July. the slow stochastic red line has crossed the blueline and is at 20 marker and giving a mild buy signal. The blue line that is the %D is yet to start looking up but is likely to do so today if the go green.

If we were to take Asia a little seriously then red opening may be the flavour of the day however we have strong chance to recover and go green. like I had written yesterday -- that closing above 4425 would have been the best case scenario. It did attempt and trade above that level but eventually closed at 4416. That has not gone too well with me. I would still wait and see this level on nifty violated on the upside before I confidently say that we are back trending upwards. the possibility however remains bright that we end in green today too.

The Bongaigaon refinery mentioned by me yesterday was trading on an average of per cent in red. I'm absolutely certain that it presented of wonderful opportunity to accumulate some stock. all the best today. The levels to watch out for the remain the same as of yesterday -- that is 4425 on the upside and 4375 on the downside.



S S Cheema said...

We have broken on of the support at 4375 - now the way is clear for a fall upto 4100 levels.
Cheers to Bears