Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Update for 01 Jul 09…

Are our Pre-Budget jitters shaking the world markets? Ofcourse not – but good to think that we can twist the tail of the world – Ha! So the confusion remains galore as the budget comes closer! The Bull/Bear tango of the markets also is also taunting everyone’s nerves. In any case we are walking on a thin line and can fall and take any side. Yesterday the red and green signals were confusing to say the least – but today there is a definite shift to the red. There are a lot of people propagating a range bound markets for some time 4100 to 4600 to be precise and that might turn out to be the case till the budget sets the direction. Infact one can see the Options data to get an idea – Put/Call ratio is exactly the same this month. Daily 30 Jun 09

I will not waste any more time and get on – starting with the global Cues. Europe was good all the way till the closing when it got negative cues from the US and went Thunk@#. FTSE closed at 1.04% down, DAX down 1.56% and CAC down 1.67%. US that opened flat – tried a bit to go green fell face down in red – trying a wee bit to recover around close and successful just to move a little above the lows. DOW closed 0.97% in red, Nasdaq down 0.49% and S&P 0.85% red. Asia today seems to have taken the cues from US and Nikkei opened down and is absolutely flat now at down 0.01%, Strait Times at 0.44% in red. All this has been perhaps due to so called disappointing consumer confidence and expectation readings.

The charts say – like I mentioned earlier – the candle is sitting on the 3/15/20 EMA – all have converged and are in a position to break out either side. Bollinger bands too have narrowed considerably and are waiting for some directional move. The volumes are 84% the last 50 day moving average, and ADX – all three lines – the ADX, –DI, and the +DI lines are plus minus at 21/22 – I can not read anything into it except confused and range bound market. MACD is bearish and once again given a signal – increasing divergence. RSI too is at 50 – a clear crossover would have been bearish as the line is coming from above – but to have stopped at 50 – GOD knows. TRIX is still looking down only. and Slow Stochastic too have both the %K and %D lines converged.

All in all the signals are all waiting for direction with a little more power of the bears than bulls. However it can change with one day worth of run up – so brace up.

The Pivot data is as under…

R3 4585 against 4528
R2 4487
R1 4389
Pivot 4328 against 4393
S1 4230
S2 4169
S3 4071 against 4258
Projected High Range 4358 to 4438
Projected Low Range 4414 to 4334
Fib Projected High 4469
Fib Projected Low 4223

Best of luck to everyone for today – may you all make money…