Thursday, July 23, 2009

Update for 23 Jul 09…

clip_image002Every day in the stock markets is a new story. Perhaps this in is what attracts – us mortals to it. The intrigue of a romance with the unknown. The markets seems to be taking a breather. Now whether it is a breather by the bulls to gather for a fight of a tug of war by the bears – only time will tell but once again the dark clouds are gathering on the horizon for a showdown. One will win and other will loose. The DIIs are convinced that they should be shedding some and the provisional data is as shown above. FIIs – seem to be more on the sidelines.

As far as the global cues are concerned – the run up that we had seen for past few days seem to be petering out. Call is consolidation, call it point of reversal – the markets the world over are in a thinking mode. Europe yesterday was in green – but flatish is what I would call it. FTSE up 0.28%, DAX up 0.54% and CAC up 0.07%. US too can be called flatish with perhaps a negative bias. Dow down 0.39%, Nasdaq up 0.53% and S&P dow 0.05%. All in all these global cues will keep our markets crazy and indecisive. Nikkei in its opening moments today is volatile. Nikkei up just 0.08%.

Daily 22 Jul 09 As far as the charts are concerned – there was a second day of a black candle. The markets were confident and in an upswing – touched the upper Bollinger band and then dropped sharply. As far as the Bollinger bands are concerned. The mid points is 4262 and around that levels only lie 15 EMA at 4296, 20 EMA 4288 – so if it breaks this level downward decisively then we are back bearish – if it does not then we are bullish and we will bounce back. On the top we can say that we could not break the Jun 12th high of 4693. The volumes were 96% of the last 50 day average. The ADX remains bullish though the +DI  has started looking down. All the same – the trend is gathering strength. (Like many times before – the ADX data in the icharts seems to be bungled up – on the software that I have the ADX value is 19.) That would imply directionless at the best – would be the present state of markets. So please do take ADX with a pinch of salt and you may have to double confirm it yourself.  MACD is bullish and gave positive divergence even with last two days of black candles. The RSI has started to look down but is still bullish till it does a crossover below 50 when a sell will be generated by the RSI. Next the Slow Stochastics are still in overbought zone inspite of two days of black candles. The signal by itself is bearish. The TRIX is still bullish.

I am without broadband once again and to download options data takes too long on options oracle – so please bear with me. So all in all global cues are flatish, the indicators that I follow are mixed with a tip towards overbought and bearish so will remain careful with the longs – inspite of the fact that idealy I would be long as the 3 EMA is above the 15 EMA. For today on Nifty (intraday) ideal to stay long above 4399 and short below that level. Best of luck to everyone for today. As always the day will be interesting as it will fold out.