Friday, July 10, 2009

Update for 10 Jul 09…

The markets were directionless – waiting for some breath of life – but there was none. There is a Infosys surprise around the corner.


They have a habit of beating their guidance and have been generally the morale booster for the markets.

It has to be seen what they say tomorrow. I will leave the – what will happen and what the results be to the insiders and punters – but yes the butterflies will keep flying in my stomach till the results are out and clip_image002I know what it will mean in real terms. I do not see a runaway market – but then who can say?

Okay without wasting any more time – the global cues. Nikkei was down 1.38%, Hang Seng was up 0.39% and Strait Times was up 2.12%. Europe was green all the way but closed lower the highs of the day. FTSE was up 0.45%, DAX up 1.26% and CAC was up 0.54%. US was weak but is now moving into green. DOW is as of now up 0.1%, Nasdaq up 0.61% and S&P is up 0.53%. There are chances that US finishes green – but will see tomorrow morning again.

Daily 09 Jul 09 As far as the candles are concerned – there is no change in the trend or the technicals. We are still trailing the lower edge of the Bollinger Bands and 15 Has fallen 12 points below the 20 EMA. The candle yesterday was a perfect Doji – representing the confusion among the Bulls and the Bears – so frankly the pulls and pushes will continue with bulls trying their level best – especially if they have the support of some good results from the companies in the upcoming result season. The ADX is Bearish and as expected the bears will grow from strength to strength in the coming few days. The ADX proper is at 17.68 and above 20 is what I am looking forward to with the red line remaining above the green. MACD divergence is negative (read bearish). RSI is bearish and mind you nowhere near the oversold zone so on the account of RSI being oversold – do not think reversal. The Slow Stochastic is bearish and this is one signal that can give a temporary relief – being oversold. TRIX looks down and favours bears.

Put call ratio 09 jul 09 option pain 09 jul 09 I have already posted the options data yesterday – so today I will use the options data to point out the levels where the call or the put build up is there so that we can watch out for those levels. There was a small problem with the options Put/Call ratio chart I had put up yesterday – the IOC show only call build up – but there is only one outstanding call position so take it with a pinch of salt – there is no options playing out in IOC. As far as the Nifty Option data is concerned – the max open interest is at Put 4000, Put 3800 and call 4300 and call 4700. the Call build up is more and put call ratio is put call ratio 09 jul 09 reliance option pain 09 jul 09 Reliance also makes an interesting study – No guesses as to where is is going to – deep well may be a good answer.

Coming to the tracking of our positions – here is the data. I would watch for the 4050 and 4000 levels in Nifty – no bother too much about the upswing even if it happens and have patience. Risk to reward is in our favour. Our markets may open flat to negative – so to carry our position forward over the weekend take 4200 call. will review on Monday about carrying it forward.

Ser No Stock/Index Sold / bought at Last closing Notional profit/loss Stoploss Remarks
1. Nifty - 50 (4185) 4081 + 5,200/- 4271/4266 Stoploss is at 10 points above 15 EMA line.
2. Reliance         Patience!