Wednesday, October 22, 2008

A bad day..... but was it really unexpected?

1150 hrs: Hope and a prayer will help us break above 3000k and then bears are in for a rude shock. Inflation - 11.04%

0800hrs: Nikkei - 5.52%, Hang Seng 4.38% and Strait Times 3.96%. I hope that no one is taking them to be positive. All down.. down.. down. Do I see ting of recovery? or are my eyes playing cruel jokes on me?

22 Oct 08: We have got used to every small increase in value in the markets followed by a sell off. Partly it is because of the sentiment and partly because we are not convinced of any long lasting health of our economy. Is it right or wrong... it is a long and a fruitless debate. There are good reasons to justify both sides. Unfortunately the fact is that in this environment - the fear and panic is being created by almost all channels of propaganda that are available, be it news, financial dailies, internet.... blah blah blah... the list goes on and on. I call it propaganda because most of the times they are just trying to read into blank sheets of paper. The results have not been half as bad as expected by the markets, commodity prices are falling (may be because of the anticipated cooling of demand - but all the same) and will lead to easing of inflation. Demand may be lowering but not drastically. Our own demand is self sustaining in many spheres. Yes the times ahead may be bad - but maybe not as bad as being propagated.

Any way - let me get on to my blog - there was blood on the Asian streets and were just part of the overall bear plan. BSE and NSE fell 4.81% and 5.25% respectively - just in line with the other asian economies - Nikkei down 6.79%, Hang Seng 5.15% and Strait TImes 5.19%. Europe tried a half hearted act at recovering after a red opening but was unsuccessfull ending - FTSE down 4.46%, Dax down 4.46% and CAC down 5.1%. These levels were the bottom most in most cases. US too opened red and has been thereafter trading in a narrow band. Dow as of now is 3.05% in red, Nasdaq down 1.82% and S&P down 3.27%. Chances of recovery?.... well perhaps... will update tomorrow morning.

Candles -- well for those of you who would understand -- "Gayi Bhans Pani Mein..." All the good show by the last two days of white candles have gone down the drain. But all the same the bottom has held and may give us a reason to again try a pull back. The candle bottom on 17 Oct was 3047, on 20th was 3059 and today it has been 3052. So there may be a barrier here that may hold in short term - however if it breaks then we should see - into a very deep dark pit. The closing too had been 3074 on 17th and 3065 today. Pray and that is about all. The Bollinger bands are back -- expanding I mean. 5 EMA line has again dropped down the 20 EMA line. the volumes were lower than yesterday. MACD divergence has lessened today - surprisingly. The RSI is back to the oversold territory. Slow Stochastic too is in oversold territory and red and blue lines are overlapping. Mass Index line has dropped reaching just above the 27 line. The TRIX still looks down.

The rupee - after showing some strength is again weak. Short selling via the P-notes has been banned - or an understanding to this effect has been reached. Fairly good company results. Oil down .. down.. down .. 68$ a barrel. And nothing else. If you have something that can help recovery - you are most welcome to post here... Best of luck.