Sunday, October 19, 2008

Hope dashed.... Well let's try one more day..

0915hrs: Two more things other than the Bullish RSI divergence as quoted on Jaggu's blog that show that we may have a OK green day today is that Crude is up - the crude for a long time now is moving in step with the markets - markets drop - crude drop and vice versa. Second is the Asia too has opened in green. Reason enough to smile?

19 Oct 08: Actually I was seriously contemplating whether I want to update the blog for tomorrow. There is no point actually when there is no fundamental or technical that is likely to play out in these markets. The US Drops - we are in dumps. US shows recovery - we are still in deeper dumps... I have now started looking at myself and doubting what I see ... no way we should have dropped like this. Actually it seems that there is no effort whatsoever by the bulls to even get up and try to fight. See it may turn out to be a strategy by the bulls to let the bears over-leverage themselves -- and kick the bucket (Seems like my wishful thinking only). After all the markets will drop if there is selling - or shorting in the market. There will be a point when the bears - sitting on tons of profits will say - what the hell - let me take profits home and we might recover. This also may be assisted by the bulls by trying to show strength and making bears jittery - after all the way we have gone lower one level after the another - the more sensitive will the bears become of looking forward for jitters. All the same let us see - how we are likely to fare. Hey by the way - did you notice - I had written some time back that if we break 3600 on nifty we have support on the charts at 3200 and after the 3200 is broken - 2500 is the next possible easy target for bears?

On Friday Nikkei was green +2.78%, Hang Seng and Strait Times were 4.44% and 3.73% down in red respectively. Europe was good - I do not know what exactly they expected out of US - but FTSE, DAX and CAC ended well in green 5.22%, 3.43% and 4.68% - this mind you was after a turbulent session - the European indexes touching flat line/going briefly red too. The US -- well started flat /red and then climbed into the green territory - getting news on the employment data and closing red. The Dow was down 1.41%, Nasdaq was down 0.37% and S&P was down 0.62%. Now all we have to do is to wait for the Asia to open - well before you ask me - the answer is that I do not have it any longer in me to give it a try to second guess opening or closing.

As far as the Candles are concerned - there is nothing that I can tell you new. They are same as before except adding a new shining black candle to their cap. The hammer did nothing and in anycase was not likely to do anything in absence of any support from any other indication. The Bollinger Band is widening - It is too wide as far as I am concerned and it cannot now continue this way - well this is what I feel and market of late have stopped listening to me. The 5 EMA line is way below the 20 EMA line. Volumes we shade less than on thursday. the MACD divergence has once again increased and that is not good at all. Mass Index is still above the 27 level. RSI is back in the oversold category. the Slow Stochastic red line is about to hit below the 20 marker - and will be oversold - the blue line that is above the red line is yet to come near the 20 marker. TRIX - the so called leading indicator is still looking down in dumps. So that is all there is to it. I am however sure of one thing - we will bounce back and the bounce back may be violent whenever it comes. I am being selfish today and saving all the good luck for me only and not sharing ;-)

GOD bless you all.



geniusjaggu said...


see the bullish divergence in RSI...

ab bhalu ki khair nahi....haaa haaa

Amit said...

Today it will be u Turn in the market. b+

S S Cheema said...

Amit and Jaggu: GOd bless you for showing me that I am not the only bull alive in the whole world.

amiT said...

Stock market explained
Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared in a village and announced to villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs10.
The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them.
The man bought thousands at Rs10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He further announced that he would buy at Rs20.
This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started to catch monkeys again. Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms.
The offer rate increased to Rs25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey let alone catch it.
The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs50. However since he had to go to the city for some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him.
In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers, "look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at Rs35 and the man would then buy them back at Rs50."
The villagers overjoyed by the mirage of profits put everything they earned at stake and bought back all the monkeys only to find the missing assistant and the man, and only monekys everywhere.
This is stock market !


S S Cheema said...

Amit - thanks - heard this story so many times that I can actually drop. LOL

Uma said...

Oh wait, I have one monkey it's called CE3300

S S Cheema said...

LOL -- Ha! trust me - my heart says you will make money on this one.