Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Given Up? .... Already??

0830hrs 15 Oct: Well I tried to search the difference between the Inverted Hammer and the Shooting star but was not quite successful as related to the candle made specific to our Nifty closing yesterday. Now the Inverted hammer is bullish and shooting star on the other hand is bearish. Seeing the Global cues the Shooting star is more likely to be played out and proved right. If anyone can help me with this I would be greatful. Except for Nasdaq that closed 3%+ down yesterday - the DOW and S&P have closed respectfully (LOL) in red. Asia has opened and slipped red. In all the probability the recent lows will be tested before the bears decide that they have won or lost. Will my saying Best of Luck help? - well Best of luck all the same - once again.

14 Oct 08: What happened? the cues were in place - the mood was right - then where did we go wrong? a pitiable 28 points up on Nifty! So the markets are not really convinced that we have a rally of any sort at our hands. After all we could have easily continued for some more time to come - a week - a few weeks perhaps - but we decided that enough is enough and that would be all. Fear - yeah that is what is playing in our minds. But I am also convinced that if the rally has to be what we classify as successful then it must not be at a hasty pace and some how - a slow and steady pace will do us more good than what we would have probably done - rising another 200+ points today and then falling in the bear trap day after. All in all - inspite of the Heading I have listed above the day was good and will give us a sure footing in next few days to come.

Asia traded well - the best performer being Nikkei - covering the day it had lost earlier on monday - it closed up 14.15% - creating history Uh!, hang Seng was up 3.19% and Strait Times too was a respectable 2.5% up. Europe is trading in green but has come off the days high that it made during the midsession. FTSE is now at 2.39% in green - graph sloping down, Dax is 3.21% up and Cac is 2.39% up in green. US opened well into the green territory then dipped down viciously - Dow in its intitial trading now just about 1.4% green, nasdaq in red but trying to look up at 0.67% and S&P up 1.18%. A long trading session ahead of US to show us which way we are to go.

Coming to the candlesticks - the pattern seems to be like a Shooting star - the pattern as such is not what I would question but its appearance after the trend does confuse me. It is a fairly strong bearish reversal signal (as if we were in a uptrend) - meaning if it is supported with a black candle that gaps down then our troubles are just beginning - and not ending. There are two things that take out the punch out of the pattern however and so I feel it may not be as potent and wait and watch is all that will tell us if I have read it correctly. Firstly as I said - it has not appeared after a uptrend - second is that the range of the candle (upper wick edge to lower wick edge) should be large as compared to the relative range over the last 10-20 days. The range is not really large when compared to the trading range of last five days. The divergence of the 5 EMA has reduced a bit but a long way still to go. The candle has abandoned the lower edge of the bollinger band. The volumes were a bit better than yesterday. MACD divergence has reduced a wee bit but the red line is still below the blue line. Mass index has eased the rate at which it was looking up and ideally our honeymoon should end as the line goes below the 26.5 point. Slow Stochastic is the only signal that is looking good with the red line above the blue and facing up towards the 50 marker. RSI too is looking good. The TRIX however continues to look down.

Okay - I could not finish the blog earlier and now the DOW is down by 1.35%, Nasdaq down by 3.02 and S&P down by 1.2% -- ready to fall already?



Uma said...

bears will make another crack at breaking 3200.