Tuesday, October 7, 2008

We almost did it....

07 Oct 08: Well we almost had a ball of a day today. Well there still was trouble and there is this fact that people are jittery and running sh*t scared... But the fact is that we could have actually recovered today and would have ordinarily done better than what we did today. Then why did we not? Well - like in the bull run we did not see over the top of that hill that there was a ravine on the other side - similarly now we fail to see the light at the end of the tunnel. See I agree that the light may be some time away - perhaps a few months or a couple of years away. (Did I overdo it?) But the fact remains that still the situation is not too bad - the situation has all the chances to become bad if our banks join the US way - but mind you we are a different Gene and our generations have coded the Genes to take lower risk than the Europeans and the Americans. We are still conservative in nature and saving in Bank and gold are in our blood. When we get salary we atleast have in the back of our minds to keep something for the rainy days. They are just not like this - their funda is - salary by the week and enjoy by the week end. So we may not fare as bad as they did. If you followed HDFC principle of the growth - when the economy opened - instead of looking outward - they looked even more inside the heart of the country. Today they have turned out to be the best bank - not agressive or growth oriented as ICICI - but the best private sector bank we have.

Okeay to - how the day went by today. Aisa opened red and then climed green. The reason? well Australia cut the interest rate by a percentage point. Imediately a rumour started doing rounds that this is part of a well orchestered plan where all major economies of the world will cut rates. How much truth is there in this will remain to be seen but the markets recovered by bounding to highs. Then they payed a Yo-Yo. Red now - green now. and ended almost flat except for Nikkei that closed 3.03% red. Hang Seng seemed to be closed as the details on the web remained to be yesterday's only. Strait Times closed 0.43% green. Europe followed the same yo-yo but in the opposite sense - opened green went read went green and they are nearing close and are still green. I hope they end somewhere here only. FTSE is at the moment 1.75% green, Dax 0.76% green and Cac 2.23% green. In US the Feds announced a plan to buy massive amounts of short-term debt from the companies with a view to make it easier for the compaines to raise money. This ensured a green opening - going red by US and they are as of now a confused lot. DOw is 0.07% green, Nasdaq 0.16% red and S&P 0.01% green - and since it is not even mid session - it is difficult to say how they will close. Talking about us - well we had BSE closing 0.9% red and NSE closing 0.12% green.

On the nifty candles it is a Doji today... It is a sign of reversal. Especially so after the downtrend we have had for so many day now. Why am I giving so much of significance to this DOji? well firstly if the Doji is formed after a trend in the market then it represents indecision in the market. Secondly it is given even more relevance if it voilates the Bollinger band on the upper or the lower edge. Finally it comes as the RSI has now gone into oversold zone along with Slow Stochastic also going into the same zone. All in all - the buying should ideally kick in soon - even if it remains so for a short time only. The Bollinger band width remains almost the same and the redline still trades well below the blue line. The volumes were better than yesterday, the MACD divergence has increased a wee bit with the red line still below the blue line. Mass Index is still as bad as before. RSI is oversold and if that gives any hopes to someone - cling on. Slow Stochastic red line is below the blue but the red line is also in the oversold zone. TRIX is still showing bearish times ahead of us.

As I finish writing this - the US is now firmly in red - but still around half a percentage point. So wait and watch continues.

A nice quote that I read yesterday:-
"Its Human nature to find patterns where there are none and to find skill where luck is a more likely explanation. (Particularly if you're the lucky one)"

Okay then - the pivots and the related for nifty: -
R3 3927
R2 3820
R1 3713
Pivot 3625
S1 3518
S2 3430
S3 3323

Projected high range 3669 to 3766
Projected low range 3697 to 3600

Fib projected high 3785
Fib projected low 3483

Best of luck and I will try to update tomorrow. Hey and there is an interesting write up below - just incase you missed it.


allvoices

9 comments:

Amit said...

Nifty is Making Southern.

This candle represent the struggle of bulls and bear in downward price trend. The bear are trying to force price lower and the bull wants to prop it up. Who wins? Neither one until the next day or perhaps later. only then can we know which side has taken control. Thus do not depend on this candle being a reversal until the next day confirms it. And even then new direction might be take.

Amit said...

Nifty is making Southern Doji,

S S Cheema said...

Amit,
I would disagree on one account - I agree to your concept of struggle but it also conveys - If Doji happens after a sustained uptrend or down trend like in this case that - the bears for once could not have their way inspite of a good attempt (lower wick). It also conveys that bulls could not force their way - but the fact remains that this is a begining of the fight being put up by the bulls.
It does spell confusion if doji comes after a times of confusion ( range bound) - but if it comes after a trend then it does spell reversal.

dr.c.m.singh said...

veerji,

first time i am posting 4 stars on your blog...reason...not that something was wrong in your article.....sheer frustration....on market not going the way me and you want....dow down 300 now....what should i do...my leveraged positions in cash...i have to cut down tommorrow..though i can pay more to broker by getting a few FDs broken which are in my mothers name...which i dont want ....but what to do...i thought eye surgery was difficult....suddenly that seems so easy.....

Amitbhai said...

Today again the condition is very poor

Now Dow is Down by 5%
Nikkei is down by 4.5%
Hang Seng is down by 5.36%
Straits Times down by 4%

what will be the status of our BSE and NSE.

Cheemasir ab to depression hone laga hai. market down hogi lekin is had tak, or hum or aap sirf dekh rahe hai helpless ho kar.

kuch to motivation ki baat ho.

dr.c.m.singh said...

SIR JI....alive ???....to live another day....!!!!!
c.m

S S Cheema said...

Yeah - so far so good. This should make another reversal candle. hammer - let us see.

Amitbhai said...

Here are the market metrics for Wednesday. At the end of the day, I run a scan and then these metrics go into Excel. Out of 1270 NSE stocks, 901 stocks made 52 week lows and 447 stocks made new lows, 688 made fresh 20 day lows ! This is enough to drive anybody crazy like hell. About 13 % of stocks are above their 200 day averages. These are extreme readings but certainly not the rock bottom. What if the number of stocks making new lows keep on increasing ? Anyway, looking at these extremes, a bounce is likely but after that we are back down again.


From blog http://timamo.blogspot.com/

S S Cheema said...

Thanks Amitbhai - going over the blog now