Monday, October 20, 2008

Not bad for the otherwise a pessimist day....

0530 hrs 21 Oct: The US markets have ended higher on account of hopes that there are signs of reviving credit market and support from Fed Reserve Chairman for further steps to aid economy. The Dow has ended 4.67% green, Nasdaq 3.43% up and S&P 4.77% up. The fence sitter bulls should now jump in and we too should have a good green day.

20 Oct 08: The bears tried today too to break the bulls will as they tried to recover the markets from the bear onsalught for last so many days. There are now build up of reasons - both technically and fundamentally that favour a pull back but the bears are really in no mood to give up that easily. I am now convinced about the fact that we are around a corner for a pullback - how long or how far it takes us - I will not double guess it.

Okay the world markets behaved somewhat well if I am permitted to say. Asia opened flat and then on a steady pace went on to close at good greens. Nikkei was up 3.59%, Hang Seng was up 5.28% and Strait Times was up 3.23%. The Europe opened green but was not really decisive of holding on to the gains - but by the mid session were on firm footing. FTSE was up 5.41%, Dax (the weakest) was up 1.12% up and Cac was up 3.56%. By this time the US futures were showing signs of going up. The US people are touchy and are with shattered nerves - however they too opened green went south momentarily and are now trading green towards their mid sessions. Dow is up 1.93% Nasdaq is up 0.69% and S&P is up 2.1%. Like I alwasy say when I catch the US mid session - there is a long way to go for them to close firmly green or red. Too much can happen in too little time now-a-days.

On the candlesticks we have another sign of reversal - the Spinning Top. This is the second trend reversal signal that we have got. How far will we ignore them? I really do not know but the fact of the matter is that today the fight was intense and bears are somehow loosening their grip. But before anything else the candle on the following day has to support the trend. So all we can do is to wait and see that this recovery trend is of some substance. The Bollinger bands are widening and showing no signs of narrowing - well that has to happen if we were to recover meaningfully. The 5 EMA continues to be below 20 EMA line and it is way way down. The volumes were low. MACD divergence is same - give or take a few points. Red line is below the blue line and shows no sign of facing up. TRIX remains to look down. Slow Stochastic red line has entered the over sold territory and blue line is following closely behind. RSI is in the oversold territory.

All in all - slowly a lot of indicators are reaching the extreme positions - time for them to turn? Wait and see for yourself tomorrow if all goes well.



Amit said...

Good Morning sirji,

AAj market Jump hogi everbody is in green.


S S Cheema said...

Have prayed for it for so long - Amit - someone has to listen to all our prayers.

Amit said...

Do u deal in option or Future or Cash

Joe tom said...

Yes Cheema,

You will get your indicators pointing up in a day or two. You have timed the turnaround perfectly, hope it holds!

The bear-rumour-mongers will pay a price today!

S S Cheema said...

amit - please mail me - @