Monday, October 6, 2008

Jau kahan bata aei dill? ...........

0740hrs 07th Sep: Well the US closed in red as expected - but in the late afternoon there was a bounce (recovery) that was strong but the losses during the day were so that I could not really wash them out and US still remained well into the red. Dow was 3.58% in red, Nasdaq -4.34% and S&P down 3.85%. Asia had opened very weak but the pulse is showing signs of recovery - however weak it ma seem. Strait Times has already shown a green tick and Nikkei is trying its best to follow.

06Sep 08: Crude below 90 dollars!! Like you and me care about it - so many people are saying it that I just don't want to repeat it - but have too. We are falling - as if you did not know - but if you read my blog a few days back - I had written that if we break the 3800 mark then there is no support till 3600. Now if we fall and break 3600 there is no support till 3200 on nifty - it can turn out to be a long and ugly fall. Thank GOD Almighty that I am not a broker. I might have gone many times under with my attitude to take bold risks. But now the problem is - How do I protect what I have? There is no putting brakes to this trend and with each passing day my portfolio dies anywhere from 5 - 10%. This Diwali we will celebrate Our Diwala. Mind you every evening I stare eagerly at my screen so that iCharts update the days candles and I stargaze. The problem now-a-days is that I still do wait for the charts to be updated with nothing but fear in my heart and eyes.

Well as always before I come to what was there for us on the markets let us see how the others fared. Well Asia opened weak and closed weaker. Hang Seng was down 4.97% and Nikkei down 4.25% Strait Times down 5.61%. Europe opened red and then went to dogs. FTSE down 2.92% (don't get impressed) Dax down 4.92% (worst is yet to come) Cac down 6.11% and mind you the markets have not closed still - so there is a bright chance that they close lower. US has opened weak but not too weak (cannot call 3% down very weak now-a-days - can we?) - however it is looking down. Dow down 2.56%, Nasdaq down 3.31% and S&P 2.97% in red. just for your information - Dow has plunged below 10,000 - the lowest level since 2004. The main reason is that the realisation is setting in that the 700Billion $ that are part of the rescue package does not mean that the flood gates are opened to let the waters to the dying - meaning that there will be a bureaucratic route to gaining access to the cash meant for disbursement. Along with that is the fact that there is a cascading effect of Dominoes that has already been set into motion and Europe is following - Asia might follow.

Still interested in Candles? Let me start by telling you - there is no fundamentals or technical s' that will work in this environment. Buy into others fear they said - and I see everyone running away. Read ahead on your own risk. The candle was a truly long and black one. It has voilated the Bollinger band and the bollinger bands continue widening - so no recovery in sight as far as the Bollinger bands go. The 5 EMA is trailing far below the 20 EMA. Volumes were not too much though - infact a shade lower than average. MACD Divergence Histogram is laughing at us. The red line is below the blue line nad the gap widening like - there is no tomorrow. On the Mass Index we have crossed the critical band - the line has just pierced it through. TRIX is looking down and the last Knight that was fighting the trend - Slow Stochastic has laid down its arms - red line crossing and going below the blue line. The Slow Stochastics place has been taken by the RSI now - that faces down and has gone into the oversold zone. That is the only hope for a small bounce back now. Other than that no hopes what-so-ever left in candles now.

Remember I wrote that if we break 3800 on Nifty then the next support is at 3600? well we are now at 3600 - if we break that ? then all the way to 3200 we have no speed breakers - be careful - but then I am hoping like hell that the 3600 support will hold for some time.

Okay this part I have separated by a huge margin - this is where I am writing what I feel. SO take it with a bucket of salt - we have a recovery around the corner - in all the probability it will be lead by some countries coming together to ward off this recession.

For the more Technically inclined - the Pivots are as under for Nifty: -

R3 4060
R2 3907
R1 3754
Pivot 3668
S1 3515
S2 3429
S3 3276

Projected high range 3711 to 3831
Projected low range 3810 to 3690
Fib Projected High 3885
Fib Projected Low 3516



Amit said...

Dear Sir,

Please read this article :

Bear Market 2000-2002: Replay in 2008

S S Cheema said...

Thanks for directing me to that Amit - already saw your comment on Uma's blog and read it. It is a nice one. What I am waiting for is a bounce to get my clothes and run! LOL